Poland: the year ahead

Will Poland continue to be ruled by a shaky coalition of the conservatives with two fringe parties in 2007? Will former president Aleksander Kwasniewski return to politics? These are some of the questions posed by analysts at the start of the year.

2006 was a year of many tensions and upheavals on Poland’s political scene. While there are many question marks relating to the development of the political situation this year, one thing is certain: 2007 is the first year in seven years with no scheduled election. Is this likely to result in a greater degree of political stability?

Jacek Kucharczyk of the Institute of Public Affairs is rather skeptical.

‘We have a coalition which has an inherent tendency towards political conflict or scandal. In this sense I’m not sure if the fact that the government does not face the election test will have a stabilizing influence on Polish politics. I wish it would be so because the government has promised some serious reforms in such fields as taxes and public finances and of course it would be more desirable if the fact that the prospect of election being more distant now than would be used by the government to conduct some serious reforms.’

Most analysts of the Polish scene predict that the current coalition of the conservative Law and Justice party with the leftist Self-Defense and the rightist League of Polish Families will remain in power throughout 2007.

Marcin Sobczyk of Interfax Central Europe.

‘I believe that the conservative camp will stay in power and will have a huge influence on Polish politics and economy until the end of the presidential term of Lech Kaczyński. His twin brother, current prime minister will continue to have huge influence on Polish politics until the end of 2010 through his brother president. Opinion polls show that Poland is quite stable now at this point in giving its support for various political parties which means that early elections to parliament would not bring a radical change.’

In the area of foreign policy, Poland has been in the news over the past few weeks because of its refusal to support a European Union-Russia deal unless Moscow ended a ban on Polish meat imports and committed itself to an international energy trade pact. Warsaw’s veto alerted the EU to the lack of a clear strategy towards Russia. According to Jacek Kucharczyk, during the German presidency in the bloc Poland should engage in a constructive dialogue about the EU agenda.

‘Poland should come up with a number of initiatives on a number of issues and should engage its European partners as a more constructive member who can do much more than veto what the EU is doing but can contribute in a positive way to solving such issues as the future of the European Constitution and the future of the EU enlargement.’

In their forecasts for 2007, some Polish commentators have predicted a political comeback by former president Aleksander Kwaśniewski. In an interview with the Polityka weekly, he said: I’ve returned to public life but not to current politics.’
Source: By Michal Kubicki, polskieradio.pl