Poland: apple production and export recovery

Apple production may reach 2.4 million tons this year because of favorable weather conditions as compared to the previous year. The production of CAJ is estimated to be high as well.

There were big changes in the trade of apples and CAJ in MY 2005/2006. Exports of apples were down 20 percent, and CAJ was down 5 percent. There was a considerable increase of apple imports from 1.000 ton up to 27.000 tons, due to the locally low supply of apples for processing. The imports of CAJ almost doubled compared with MY2004/2005.

Since the MY2006/2007 apple harvest and CAJ production are estimated to be high, the volume of exports in MY2006/2007 will recover from the low levels of MY2004/2005. The value of exported apples and CAJ may decrease as a result of the increase in supply.

Poland’s per capita consumption of fruit and fruit products is less than half of the EU’s consumption, but apple consumption is on par with EU consumption levels, and even higher than in France and Spain. The consumption of fruit juice is similar to the EU average.

Production

Unfavorable weather conditions (ground frost, as well as cool and wet spring) resulted in lower yields in CY2005. The production of apples was down 18 percent compared with CY2004 (2,075 million tons versus 2.5 million tons in 2004).

The winter 2005/2006, although sometimes very severe (temperatures went down to minus 30 Celsius – below 0 degrees F), did not damage orchards. Wet weather in late May spread fungi illnesses, like the apple scab in small orchards. However, in big, well-protected plantations there was no damage. Specialists foresee a large harvest of apples which may reach 2.4 million tons. Because of the large harvest, prices for apples for processing could drop by 30 percent, while prices for consumption apples could drop by 15 percent.

The limited CY2005 harvest resulted in lower production of concentrated apple juice (CAJ) (20 percent down from 230,000 tons in MY2004/2005 to 185,000 tons in MY2005/2006).

Poland’s EU accession did not influence the price and production volume of CAJ, as it is exported and dependent on EU and world prices. According to the Institute of Rural economics forecast, the production of CAJ in MY 2006/2007 will increase up to 235,000 tons.

Consumption

The prices on fruit and fruit products increased in CY2005 by 2.7 percent compared with CY2004. The price of apples increased by 1.7 percent. During first four months of CY2006, average prices of fruit and fruit products increased by 5.7 percent as compared to CY2005.

Apple prices were 20.4 percent higher. However, in CY2005, retail prices of fruit and its products were lower in Poland than in most of EU-15. For example, apple prices in Poland were 62 percent lower than in Germany.

The average consumption of apples in CY2005 was 1.67 kilogram per capita (4 percent down from 1.74 kilogram in CY2004, and 16.5 percent down from almost 2 kilograms in CY2003). The consumption of apples in the second half of CY2006 is estimated to increase due to lower prices.

Source:By Dennis van der Westen, freshplaza.com,